[vhawk01]

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well if you would bunt ruth there you must be very drunk

but the problem with all of these formulas are they are not an exact science and never will be and the 2-3 % diffeerence they show one way or the other can be margin of error
I dont care what a bunch of guys with similar jeter have done over the last 100 years in that spot-
He might be slower or faster than them, a better or worse bunter etc.
The infielders might react well in this spot or you could have ty wigginton fielding the ball
The pitcher might have trouble throwing strikes after intenionall walk someone or he might have maddux like control.
The guy who will bat with the bases loaded might not handle the bat well or be capable of adjusting to the situation.
My gut would say to bunt but its going to be close to break even- but there is no way this book can be accurate with so man factors that can never be accounted for.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, so AFTER having done all the analysis and figuring out exactly how close it is in a generic scenario, a good manager can then use his expertise and additional knowledge to tweak it a little bit and make up that 2 or 3% margin of error.

Or he can just guess and make [censored] up and do 'what he has always done' and give up way more than any 2 or 3% edge except perhaps in this one lucky scenario in which he's stumbled upon the optimal strategy by dumb luck.