Re: River decision in a big pot
Short answer: Call (most of the time)
Long answer: You should call (most of the time) if you think there is a non-zero chance of him bluffing. If there's a 0% chance of him bluffing, your EV of calling is -1.0 BB. If there's a 10% chance of him bluffing, your EV of calling is 0.4 BB. The "breakeven" point is around 7% (game theory).
The fact that you saw him make a river bluff means that there's a non-zero chance of him bluffing. In my experience, people are very bad at doing a particular action a really small % of the time...therefore, if anything he's bluffing more frequently than 7% rather than less frequently. Also, if you occasionally fold in this situation, your opponent will believe river bluffs are profitable. Even if he works out that bluffing 7% is correct, he will probably do it more frequently.
For example, I tell myself that I should raise UTG "infrequently" with 87s (in a full ring game), say 5-10% of the time. In reality, I probably do it way more than I intend to.
Finally, in this situation, standard psychology says he is less likely to do a river bluff since he just did one (that failed). Reverse psychology says he is more likely to do a river bluff since you will be expecting that he won't be doing two river bluffs in a row.
Hmmm...I like my short answer better.
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