Re: Is this always a set?
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95% yes.
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haha barring reads you can narrow his range down to 95% sets here? if there's no FD this becomes closer to a fold but I seriously dont see how you guys think this is such an easy fold here.
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I don't think it's an easy fold, but it is a smart one.
Look at the size of his 3bet. He wants us to call. I really think something like the nut FD or combo draw would 3bet bigger for FE. Jacks or Queens have got to be afraid of the draws or an overcard on the Turn (or an overpair after we raise).
This is one of the few spots where I'm more likely to call a shove than a small 3bet. I really think his shoving range is one we can call more comfortably than his min-3betting range.
BTW: I know this is exploitable, but it doesn't come up enough for that to happen. How often am I actually holding AA when I raise this flop? Usually I've got air or a medium pair.
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