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Old 08-01-2007, 10:04 AM
JayPez JayPez is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 289
Default Re: TPMK spot OOP in tilt 150

Good hand bond tough spot. the krux of the hand is how often he is raise/folding his hand

Ok lets give him a flop raising range

77+,33,ATs,QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,Ato 7.1%

not all of these are good cards to raise, but he may be bad and raising to find out where he is at.

Say hes gonna call your push with…

TT+,77,33,ATs,98s 3.8% which your 20% equity against

54% of the time hes calling.

Pot = 3200 + 2000 + 5400 = 10600

So 46% u win 10600
So 11% u win 3200 + 15600 = 18800
43% u lose 1000 + 16700 = 17700

4876+2068-7611 = -687 chips

so basically he needs to be folding around 50% of the time to the push to make it profitable.

I’d probably say push because the % chance hes playing back at you makes it +ev imo.
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