Re: TPMK spot OOP in tilt 150
Good hand bond tough spot. the krux of the hand is how often he is raise/folding his hand
Ok lets give him a flop raising range
77+,33,ATs,QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,Ato 7.1%
not all of these are good cards to raise, but he may be bad and raising to find out where he is at.
Say hes gonna call your push with…
TT+,77,33,ATs,98s 3.8% which your 20% equity against
54% of the time hes calling.
Pot = 3200 + 2000 + 5400 = 10600
So 46% u win 10600
So 11% u win 3200 + 15600 = 18800
43% u lose 1000 + 16700 = 17700
4876+2068-7611 = -687 chips
so basically he needs to be folding around 50% of the time to the push to make it profitable.
I’d probably say push because the % chance hes playing back at you makes it +ev imo.
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