[marchron]

I think counting AJ at all is thin for an unknown player who's facing an EP raise from someone HE considers unknown (Hero). On the other hand, I'd include all AQ hands, as that's a pretty standard 3-betting hand. At the very least, include all AQs hands (three left) and anywhere between one-half to three-quarters of AQo hands (nine left, so count, say, six).

Also, according to SSHE, we overvalue backdoor draws more than the math would suggest because we'll usually collect mega implied odds on river bets, since nobody will put us on a backdoor hand. Of course, by that token, if you want to be Nitty McNitterson, you shouldn't then factor in implied odds with those, since they're already priced in. You wouldn't want to double-count your implieds.