[00Snitch]

Let me see if I can get some maths right for a change... (feel free to jump in you maths geeks that actually know what you are doing...)

I'm giving villan TT+;AK+ and half the AJ and AQ hands. Possibly a bit generous, but we'll see how it looks.

You just can't count your bdsd for anything. It is worth less than half an out. A two-gap bdsd will come in about 1.5% of the time. A one out hand, comes in about 4% of the time. So a two-gapper is worth less than half an out. So lets just forget about that.

You'r back-door flush draw however, will come in about 4% of the time, so that is worth around 1 out. So we will count that.


AK(12) - 4 outs
AQ(6) - 4 outs
AJ(8) - 7 outs
TT(6) - 7 outs
JJ(6) - 7
QQ(3) - 0.5 (discount for the board pairing if we make our 1 out bdfd.
KK(3) - 1

Total Hands - 44

Average outs:

= (12/44)4 + (6/44)4 + (8/44)*7 + (6/44)*7 + (6/44)*7 + (3/44)*0.5 + (3/44)*1

= 48/44 + 24/44 + 56/44 + 42/44 + 42/44 + 1.5/44 + 3/44

= 216.5/44

Average outs = 4.9

Odds needed to call: 47/4.9 - 1 = 8.5

We are getting 7.5:1 and need 8.5:1, so it's probably a fold.

I am willing to be proven wrong. There is probably a 50% chance my maths sux.