[hawk59]

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The market for the last 5 years has been relatively "easy" to predict/fluke compared to historical precedent

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What has been so easy about the last 5 years that differs from any other random 5 year period?

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Is this a serious question?

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King,

This is a very serious question, it amazes me how people can look back at the past and think it was so easy to predict when things are always uncertain in the present. The reason the past seems easy to predict is because you know what happened!!!

How long have you been involved in the markets? Do you remember how bad things were in 2002-2003? Everybody was afraid of everything, credit worthy companies couldn't get financing at reasonable terms, credit protection on investment grade credits traded at 300 bps, junk bonds were trading at historically huge spreads, and it was a serious fear that huge companies could go bankrupt overnight due to Worldcom and Enron. You really mean to tell me that it was easy to predict that in 3 years we would go from an environment that was literally one of the most risk averse ever to an environment that is as blind to risk as has ever been? Where junk spreads are at historically low levels, risk is supposedly non-existant, selling CDS at 20 bps is actually thought of as a smart strategy, and raising $10bn for an LBO is no big deal and can be done on good terms? No you did not predict this, you had no idea, neither did anybody else.