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Old 07-31-2007, 11:48 AM
disjunction disjunction is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 3,352
Default Re: Made couple of mistakes stud hi

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Get 7CS4AP. Third's a call.

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I don't understand this (Yes I have read 7CS4AP although I'm sure I missed a lot). All our spades are live, it appears that the pot will be at LEAST 3-way and possibly more, so raising is probably positive equity just on third. Furthermore, chasing people out may allow us to win this bloated pot with 2 small pair. And as a bonus you may get some deception.

In summary, you either chase people out, which is good, or you bloat a multiway pot with a live draw, which is good.

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you have a dead Ace (possibly two) and no overcard to the raiser. You want to see 4th cheaply and hope to improve by catching a spade. I can see peeling 4th if you miss given the pot size, assuming your cards are still relatively live.

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Yeah there are 42 unknown cards, of which 10 are spades, 7 more give us a gutshot, 5 give us a pair, (and I suppose aces are close to dead). So more than half the deck improves us, by fifth there's a 50% chance we'll have a 4-flush and an additional 25% chance that we'll have improved in some other way (although most of that will require that we fold anyway).

There's roughly a 15% chance of having a 4-flush AND a pair, so it would be nice if we can give ourselves a shot to beat an unlucky opponent who is stuck with one pair. Or else if everybody stays in the pot we may have given ourselves odds to go farther with a gutshot and small pair.
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