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First: I am honored at my first ever 2+2 thread.
Second: I actually stand by my point that backing a WINNING player is risk free. OBV there are the circumstances to consider like long term run-bad and the psychological factors that those incur, but if a player is a long term winner on their own, make up insures that the player is playing basically on their own but provides the opportunity for them to play in bigger games. The rub that I think you're getting at is that if a player is stuck 100k due to make up they're going to play far differently than if they were stuck 100k on their own and playing off their own bankroll. If a player stuck on make-up wanted to make some beer money, he's gonna have to cash for over 100k, where as the guy stuck 100k in toruneys but still playing on a 20k bankroll still knows that he has beer money for the night and ain't sweatin' having to cash for 100k+ to make some bucks for the night.
Glad you appreciated the article. It was written on a plane without any inspiration at all- I was late on a deadline and asked my editor for any ideas, and he promptly said, "Backing."
Devo
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My understanding is that Make-up exists only for the duration of the staking agreement. So the horse gets down 200k in entry fees, the backer runs out of patience or money and ends the deal. Five years later the horse makes a $1.8 million score in a WPT event. He has no obligation to make up the $200k at this point, right?
If so, then staking obviously is not risk free.
Edit, see this quote:
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"Backing players is pretty much a losing proposition,'' says Ted Forrest, who has backed such players as Cyndy Violette and Layne Flack. "I've lost a lot of money backing other players. There's only a few players that have been lucky to back players that have won for them. I think [Phil] Ivey has backed players that have won for him and Daniel [Negreanu] has been lucky with players he's backed. But for the most part, backing other players is a losing proposition.''
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Source of quote here
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And more words of caution, this time from Thomas Keller:
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So, cutting to the chase, when should someone stake another poker player? My protective instincts toward my readers are screaming at me at this moment, wanting me to yell out, "Never, never stake any poker player in any game or tournament as the downsides are vast and often deceptive. In addition, those who stake poker players generally end up losing a lot of money."
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Keller also says this:
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I have learned a lot about how and, more importantly, when to stake players. Unfortunately, I have learned the hard way, and despite putting considerable time, effort, and heart into my staking endeavors, I am currently running a hefty financial loss in staking. This should not be surprising, as I believe that most people lose money when they stake poker players.
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Source of the two Keller Quotes
Note that Keller reputedly lost a lot of money in a backing deal with Scott Fishman that included make-up when Fishman got way stuck and walked away from the deal. Reports on the amount that Keller lost range from around 200k to 400k.
Staking is far from a risk free endeavor as far as I can tell.