[emerson]

[ QUOTE ]
emersons post is interesting. i dont know what to make of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I made a logical and mathematical error in that bluff frequency calculation. If he has about 36% equity with a small pair against our range, meaning that 64% of the time we will have him beat and bet, then the chance that we are bluffing cannot be greater than his pot odds to be optimal. He is getting 6.25 to 1. So the correct bluffing default, before we take opponent tendencies into account, would be about 10.25%. To get that frequency we bluff about 28.5% here, not the 40% that I posted previously. (10.25% /36%)


I agree with those who don't like the river bet. We already beat most of the missed draws.