[bigpooch]

First, let me say the POSTDRAW chances are more relevant
than the predraw chances. The opener is unlikely to fold
anything but a very small two pairs (which he should!) or
a hand like 9922.

Of course, if you KNEW the BB had a legitimate draw (and
5432 ISN'T one of them) or QQ/KK/AA, then you don't want him
in. In my previous post, I expressed that if the opener's
range was KK+ (fairly liberal), JJ88K from the button (or
any other position) isn't worth reraising with. It's true
that if you were heads up with the opener (that has KK or
better), your postdraw chances I would estimate to be
between 50% and 55%, but there are three problems:

1) One of the blinds could have aces up or better and most
players would have a tough time laying down aces up even for
a reraise. Sometimes, one of them will cap it. In any
case, the postdraw chances including the blinds will be
slightly less (about 3 1/2% for each blind) which negates
being a slight favorite postdraw. Of course, you don't
necessarily have to be a favorite postdraw, but only need
for the play to have higher EV for your range (or specific
hand) over the alternative of calling.

2) The original opener could cap it with trips or better.
From your post, I gather you would call the 4-bet. The
better option (IMHO) would be to fold if you somehow didn't
intend to 3-bet and now are facing a 4th bet by the opener
when HU; of course, if you had 3-bet and if anyone else put
in the last raise, you must call. If you don't intend to
call a cap when HU, this is a good reason NOT to reraise.

3) This is a tournament, so chips don't have the same value.
Especially if you think you are one of the better players in
the tournament, you don't want to make (sub)marginal plays,
that may decrease your overall tournament EV. I think the
payout is in seats and there is some leftover money or FPPs
in these events, so there are multiple prizes. Of course,
if there is only one prize, this factor doesn't apply.


Also, I think on the button, you can't fold a hand such as
TT223 even if the raiser is from utg, but it's not good
enough to reraise with, unless the opener often opens very
light.

I think one way you can convince yourself of much of the
above is simply by dealing out a few hundred hands (or have
a computer program deal out a few hundreds of thousands of
hands for you!) and see which play is better.


In greggg230's previous post, he was talking about if he is
in the BB in a MULTIWAY pot. Obviously, if he were heads up
with the same hand in the BB, if it isn't a reraise from the
button (with the cutoff and hijack folding), it isn't
likely to be a reraise from the BB.

If the pot were 4-way, say there was a raise from UTG and
two players cold call, and you hold a hand in the BB that is
NOT even favored to be best postdraw, you can still think
about reraising if you have more than about a 1/3 chance of
having the best hand postdraw. In a 3-way pot, you would
want your chances postdraw to be above 40% (clearly bigger
than 1/3 but not as high as 1/2 obviously since it is a
3-way pot).