[pzhon]

What rubberloon was trying to calculate was the number of standard deviations you are away from breaking even, to try to establish whether you are a winning player or not. If you are ahead of win rate x by 2 standard deviations or more, then you have strong evidence that you are winning x or more.

He assumed that the SD was per 100 hands. If it was hourly, then you need another calculation: observed win rate per period / (SD per period / sqrt(# periods)). Although the SD per period is just and estimate, it converges much faster than your win rate does, particularly in limit.

Anyway, a critical assumption of the ROR calculation was that the win rate you entered was your true average. After 2700 hands, you don't have a very good idea what your average win rate is, and in fact, it's not clear that your win rate is sustainable by anyone. It looks like you were running well, although whehter by a little or a lot will take a lot more hands to determine.

Another assumption in the ROR calculation is that you never cash out. If you plan to cash out periodically, you need to reduce your win rate by the amount you are cashing out.