[RoundTower]

this is what I wrote on another forum about this hand, I'd like to hear more opinions.

I've talked to Flipper a little bit about this hand and I still disagree. Here's my summary.

Hardly anybody sits down at the table and stacks off here with AA on this flop on his second hand. Maybe if Flipper had been pushing him around all day, that would be a different matter. Probably you get one more bet half the time on average, no matter whether you call or raise.

If he has a weak hand (that will fold to a raise) it doesn't matter much if you call or raise. If you call he might hit a straight and pay you off another bet, but he also might hit an overfull and you will lose at least one more bet.

If he has 77xx or 74xx you will probably go broke on the flop. If you call maybe you don't always go broke.

So let's talk about if he has a 7. If he has a 7 you want to raise, you want to charge him now while you still have the best hand. If he has a good 7, something like AKJ7, he will probably want to get it in and will 3 bet you whatever you do. If he has a bad 7 like T887 he will probably call any raise but he will not be happy to get it in. So you should raise a large amount, not give him a cheap card.

Of course you have to balance this with your bluffs, because you will also raise here with nothing sometimes. I don't have any way to prove it but I think 90 to 95 is a good amount to make it in this spot if you are bluffing, from his point of view there will be an awkward amount of money left behind and he won't like to call with a marginal hand.

Finally, if you make it 95 and he calls and you get one more almost-pot sized bet out of him on the turn (a likely outcome if he has a bad 7xxx) you take well over half his stack. If you make it 60 and he calls, you are going to need to get value on two streets to win the same amount. Getting value with this hand on the river is difficult, it is often best to check behind.

Apparently a host of excellent players disagree with me (Prof, Flipper, Cooney is only the start) but I'd like to hear more about their reasons.