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Old 07-29-2007, 01:56 AM
marand marand is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 687
Default Two more hands for Future Game Simulation (FGS)

From my last two hands, let's back up 4 hands and see how it looked then.

Blinds 200/400
CO 4000, folds
BN 1000, folds
SB 7300, pushes
BB 1200.

Hero is in the BB. What range should hero call with?
Hero will be the first one all-in if big stacks keeps pushing every hand so he must either make a stand now or fold down to 600 chips and call in the BB next time. (Unless he picks up a good hand and can play it from SB, BTN or CO.)

I would guess that Hero should call with about 50% of his hands if SB pushes close to 100%. Reasonable? What does FGS say?

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Similar example but hero has 1 more chip.

Blinds 200/400
CO 4000, folds
BN 1000, folds
SB 7300, pushes
BB 1201.

Hero is in the BB. What range should we call with?
Here we can out last the other shorty and make him play a hand first. There are 6 hands before he is all-in so there is time for both short stacks to pick up a good hand. Not quite panic mode, but that extra chip is still very nice to have in case neither short stack picks up a good hand.

I would have guessed that we should call with about 15% here also. But after thinking about the situation some more I would now guess it's closer to 25% calling range. I really am not sure at all though. I think this is a very difficult situation.

What is a reasonable calling range here for hero? What does FGS say? Can it calculate this far ahead? Is the decision tree huge?

If we assume that SB pushes 100% then ICM would suggest that we call with 35%. (Both with 1200 and 1201 chips.)

I think this calling range is too tight with 1200 chips and too loose with 1201 chips, but I find it difficult to know by how much.

Thoughts?
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