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Old 07-29-2007, 01:35 AM
marand marand is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 687
Default Re: Theory: Hands where ICM doesn\'t work

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Yeah you will have more like 23% equity so that drops it down a fair amount. So 60% equity w/o antes and 50% w/ antes seems about right to me. SNGW guy puts calling correct at about 53% and that seems reasonable.

The thing is that you have to offset this by the times that the guy has to play a 3-way pot (or keep the bubble alive) when you fold. We're just assuming that he will bust 50% of the time but who knows if that will be the case. You also have to consider that ICM probably overshoots your equity when you call and win so you might want to adjust for that.

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Yes, there are lots of things to consider in this situation. I think I have generally been calling too tight here. Most often probably tighter than my first estimate of 15% in my original post. It's confusing with two different reasons that want to give you such a drastic different calling range.

1) I have 2/3 of my stack in the BB already.... should call 100%
2) Other shorty is about to die... I should fold everything except KK+

There is nothing more frustrating than to fold down to 1 chip and then both big stacks fold leaving the other shorty with 600 chips when he was supposed to be all-in !! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Do you think the calling range from Wiz seems reasonable here?
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