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Old 07-28-2007, 07:55 PM
You're No Daisy You're No Daisy is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Pinning the tail on the donkey
Posts: 482
Default Re: 25NL call all-in preflop with flush draw?

[ QUOTE ]
okay, you most likely have all these outs:

2 outs for 888
3 outs to make AA88
9 outs to make your flush draw

14 outs. That's > 50% to hit one of these by the end.

That means you're the favourite even if it was even money. You're getting better than even money.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are right sir...I just ran the numbers. In fact, villain played this hand way too aggressive. He had J9o and probably feels like he was out drawn (which he was), but I don't believe he made the right play. He's only getting called by hands that already have him beat, or something like mine. Here are the number from twodimes.net:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2904488
pokenum -h ac 8c - 9d jh -- 4c jc 8s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8s Jc 4c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac 8c 511 51.62 479 48.38 0 0.00 0.516
9d Jh 479 48.38 511 51.62 0 0.00 0.484

Thanks for fixing my post subject [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

AC

ps...the 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] came on the turn and I took down a big pot (tee-hee) [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
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