[daveT]

according to some certain prediction market:

traders have the following:

for the democratic nomination:

Clinton: 47%
Obama: 35%
Biden: 1%

For GOP noms:

Guiliani 36%
Thompson: 32%
Romney: 18%

For President:

Clinton: 28%
Obama: 18%
Guiliani: 20%
Thompson: 15%

Dems: 56$
GOP: 39%

I question about Ohio and Pennsylvania. I know that both states are losing a large portion of their populations, moving to states that won't matter, because these states tend to be established one way or the other.

I will assert that it is far more likely that liberals will move around more than republicans.