[ QUOTE ]
On flop try to play for clinches, even if this would mean going for the ruuner runner. For example if the board comes KJ2 with one heart and you have A3xx hearts you have to keep drawing the odds will be always there after it got 4 bet multiway preflop.
[/ QUOTE ]Hi Borys – Not true. The odds not only won’t always be there, the odds won’t even usually be there.
With five opponents continuing all the way to the showdown even when they have nothing, and if there is one small bet going into the pot on the second and third betting rounds, and two small bets going into the pot on the fourth betting round, you do win a total of 48 small bets when you make the flush and win with it. And 38 small bets (I think) is your break even point under these circumstances. Thus if your opponents are all completely stupid, you do have favorable odds to continue with no more raises after the first betting round.
However, your opponents are not all completely stupid. (Probably none of them are completely stupid).
They won’t all play badly enough to chase to the showdown when they have nothing on the flop, still nothing much on the turn, and a losing hand on the river. (Probably none of them will play that badly).
Worse (for Hero), there will likely be some raising on the turn.
With an ideal backdoor flush draw hand, you will only make a back-door flush one time out of 22. And then with four opponents seeing the flop and playing reasonably well, you lose to a full house or quads about one time out of five.
Each of your opponents will have less than two pairs after the turn roughly 1/2 of the time. And assuming they each at least have the good sense to fold after the turn with less than two pairs, there will only be an average of 2 bets going into the pot from opponents on the third betting round, and probably less on the fourth betting round.
Here’s the math for the average of 2 bets on the turn:
First some tabulating:
(each digit making up each four digit number is for one of the four opponents. 1 means two pairs or better on the turn, 0 means less than two pairs or better on the turn)
<ul type="square">0000
-
0001
0010
0100
1000
-
0011
0101
1001
0110
1010
1100
-
1110
1101
1011
0111
-
1111
1/16 there is no bet on the 3rd betting round
4/16 Hero has only one opponent on the 3rd betting round
6/16 Hero has only two opponents on the 3rd betting round
4/16 Hero has only three opponents on the 3rd betting round
1/16 Hero has all four opponents on the 3rd betting round.
1/16*0+4/16*1+6/16*2+4/16*3+1/16*4=
0+0.25+0.75+0.75+0.25=2[/list]Thus Hero should expect an average of 2 opponents contributing to the pot on the third betting round. (Looking that over now, I can see an easier way to get to the same place. Oh well.)
With 20 bets in the pot from four opponents plus Hero (four small bets each) from the first betting round, 4 small bets from opponents on the second betting round, an average of 2 big bets from opponents on the third betting round, and 2 double big bets from 2 opponents when Hero makes a flush and wins, starting from after a
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img],J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] flop, when Hero holds A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (and thus has more or less completely missed a fit with this flop), Hero only wins 36 small bets when he wins. That’s figuring it very, very optimistically for Hero.
It’s simply not enough to draw for a back-door flush alone, not even when the betting is capped before the flop with four opponents and with nobody raising after the flop.
The backdoor nut low draw adds enough to Hero’s prospects to make continuing after this flop worthwhile – but only if there is no more raising until Hero makes a winner on the river (and if Hero gets paid off by two opponents when he scoops).
That scenario is not impossible, but it
is unlikely.
In my humble opinion, Hero should fold to a bet unless all three of the following conditions are met <ul type="square">(1) Hero is on the button or last to act,
(2) the player in first position bets, and
(3) nobody raises on the second betting round after the flop is KJ2 with one heart and Hero has A3xx with hearts.[/list]The danger of a raise or check-raise from someone in this volatile group is simply too great.
And even when all these conditions are met on the second betting round, a jamming contest can easily erupt on the third betting round.
In my humble opinion, back-door draws simply miss too often and don’t pay off well enough when they don’t miss to generally be worthwhile pursuing in a limit game, even when the betting is capped five ways before the flop, and even when Hero has both a back-door flush draw and a back-door low draw. There probably are some exceptions.
[ QUOTE ]
focus exclusivly on playing premium starters and big rundowns.
[/ QUOTE ]I don’t want to quibble here, and certainly not about semantics, but I’m not sure I quite agree with you here either. However, first your understanding and usage of “premium” may not be the same as mine.
And second, I have some issues regarding playing most of the big rundowns here. Hero, if playing a rainbow run-down, is only going to flop two or three cards in the run-down range (or flop a straight) about 14% of the time. And then for most of those, he’s far from home free. There are ~16% more additional playable flops that are playable in a passive game, but that hardly applies here, and these additional flop fits are flimsier, mostly with one card in the run-down range and one other abutting the run-down range.
At any rate, I generally don’t want to play those big rundown hands for more than one bet before the flop - and I
certainly don’t want to play
any of them for four bets. (There probably are some exceptions).
Buzz