Thread: First good idea
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Old 07-26-2007, 08:45 PM
Scorpion Man Scorpion Man is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Bay Area, CA
Posts: 615
Default Re: First good idea

Just to clear up the facts here
1) did not miss "guidance" (they don't guide). Did miss concensus (i had a feeling that was coming given the last discussion with them I alluded to.

2) After hours print was bogus...I don't ascribe any meaning to it. I think the stock probably (who knows) starts down tomorrow. Conference call at 11am EST will be important.

3) As I said before, I am still feel good here long term, but the junk bond mkt imploding was a real short term negative (i think people bot the stock for that catalyst) and Q2 had some combo of weather issues and street "modelling" issues. The company does NOT guide at all, and will not in the future. This can lead to confusion on a highly seasonal, newly public company.

3) Gross margins were quite good and this is the most important part of the story.

4) I am very curious to see how Q3 is shaping up...street had modelled Q2 and Q3 as pretty flat sequentially. I am thinking it will be up...but I am not sure.

I should have my head examined for posting ideas here...but oh well. FWIW, I have not sold a share and think that the real test here is where the stock is in 18 mos.


My apologies to anyone who is down on this.
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