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Old 07-26-2007, 07:42 AM
JavaNut JavaNut is offline
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Join Date: May 2007
Location: Permanent downswing
Posts: 471
Default Re: Some extraordinary squeeze in level 3

Did a little math on this under the assumption that

1) the button calls 60% of the time
2) you are 60-40 favorite vs BB if button does not call
3) button is 70-30 favorite when calling (did not bother to include BB in that calculation so I assume either you or button wins when button calls, consider the chance of BB winning counted into the 70-30)

2070 * .4 * .6 = 496,80
-690 * 0.4 * 0.4 = -110,40
-4510 * 0.6 * 0.7 = -1894,20
9710 * 0.6 * 0.3 = 1747,80

In all EV = 240.

Then your EV on a 4510 risk is 240. Personally I think that this is too much of a coin flip.

But again my numbers could be too pessimistic.
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