Re: NL200 - flop a combo draw
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This is shove or fold. Calling off 25% of your stack, just hoping he pays you off on a flush is so terrible. On the bright side, the gutter is very disguised - but that's not enough of an incentive to just call OOP. You're a 2:1 dog to sets/better flushes. Flipping with everything else. Overall equity is going to be somewhere around 40%. Add in a touch FE, the $50 overlay and I shove. And it is always a very nice thing to let people see you stack off with 'nothing but a 5 high flush draw'. Keep repeating it because it shocked me, but the fish actually notice these things.
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Your equity, on THIS flop, is nowhere near 40% if you get called.
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You have no reason to believe this guy isn't doing this with QQ / dumbplayed AA/KK, AJ, QJ, KJ. If his range includes anything beyond sets and better flushes, you're going to be about 40%.
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Of course I have reason to believe that. He's 20/13. Guys like this 3-bet QQ+, and don't tend to raise QJ or KJ or some other [censored] on a flop like this. In fact, if he has no set, his most likely hand is something like J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9/T/Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and that destroys us, and LOL that ain't foldin'.
Dunno how many times I gotta say this. You can pretend "Oh, but he might be the ONE stupid 20/13 guy that doesn't do this" or "Oh but maybe just this ONE time he decided not to 3-bet AA", but you are just basically looking for excuses to play this "big draw" the way the rest of SSNL always does in these posts, which is "ZOMG BIG DRAW DON'T NEED TO READ HANDS JUST PUSH!"
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