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Old 07-25-2007, 12:30 AM
DcifrThs DcifrThs is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2003
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Default Re: Collapse of the American Economy?

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.) Increasing Inflation - I mean real inflation, not the crap the government reports.....


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what is "real inflation"?

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Well for one "real inflation" is not "ex food and energy" - if energy goes up 50% in 3 yearsthat gets ignored.... that adds a few % to the annual inflation rate IMO.

Second... is consumer goods are adjusted... takethis for example... one year a car costs 10000$ without air bag - next year the same model costs 11000$ but now the airbag is standard - the government agencies that figure inflation would assign lets say a 500$ value to the air bag so instead ofthe price increasing 10% it only "really" went up 5%.... that sort of stuff !!!! (This maybe a stupid example but I hope you see what I mean)

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what is your background? have you studied economics? surveys? financial markets? i don't mean to pry but i'd like to know to whom i'm responding.

thanks,
Barron

PS- answer me this: look at the PCE composition and calculation, if your ideal reporting mechanism came into effect, how much greater would the numbers be? and would it really make a big difference?

also, answer me another one: what makes you better at designing something like the PCE than people who spend their lives thinking about it?

finally, what motivation does the BEA, BLS, or FED have to misstate inflation? keeping in mind that at least one of these organizations is independent of administration (and also thinking about the knock-on effect a systematic misstatement would have down the line)?
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