[Marnixvdb]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It should be very clear to anyone who has studied the math of bankroll management, risk-of-ruin, and variance that Townsend is well on his way to being effectively busto.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you just string together these buzzwords randomly or do you have any idea what they actually mean? Your whole post makes no sense at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have degrees from UCB in engineering, math, and computer science. I've been a professional financial trader for over 10 years. I've studied these concepts extensively, so to answer your question, yes, I think I know what I'm talking about.

Variance is a measure of fluctuation from the mean in a stochastic process. If a player, even a winning player, does not well-manage his variance as he increases his $ velocity (the amount of money wagered per unit of time), the normal expectation is that he will at some point lose his entire roll.


[/ QUOTE ]

That's all well and good, but it requires you to know a bunch of stuff about BT, about his roll, about his edge in the games that you really don't. This thread exists under the assumption that he dosn't manage his variance well, but beyond OMG 3 MILLION IS A BIG NUMBER we don't really have any evidence of that.

[/ QUOTE ]

dids you are not understanding his point and make yourself look stupid by discarding them like you do

Romo's argument is that when the increase in Brian's swings is growing faster than his increase in winrate, no matter how big Brian's current poker bankroll is, he will go busto

whether those assumptions hold up (that Brian's swings will continue to grow) is another issue