[bustedromo]

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I think you're wrong. Brian may not be a math whiz but he knows useful rules of thumb for bankroll requirements in NL/PL games.

More importantly he has given every indication that he is willing to step down when his bankroll gets hit too big. He is aware that in bankroll terms he was taking a shot at 1k/2k.

Finally, there is a flaw in your model which is that even if Brian were willing to play to the point of busto rather than step down, he can not endlessly increase his stakes until probability catches up with him.

1k/2k is the end of the road... it has never gotten any higher. Even under your unfavorable assumptions about his risk taking, if he can get safely bankrolled for 1k/2k he will be home free.

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I'm not saying you need to be a math whiz. I'm saying you have to consistently approach the game from the standpoint of managing risk of ruin, no matter how good you get, and no matter what stakes you play at.

What I see in BT and some other guys is an over-emphasis on how well they play, and an under-emphasis on variance that is natural part of the game no matter how good you are.

I would say a lot of this comes down to how big you think BT's roll is. To play long-term the way he's been playing with a low (<5%) probability of busto, I'd say he needs a roll of about $100M. I don't think he has anywhere near that much.

A lot of what drives this is an awareness that it can happen. BT's never gone busto. Most great players have, one or more times.

Players like DN had the luxury of learning their craft before the inet, before everything was so accelerated. They had their busto experiences while earning their livings as mid-limits live pros. Their rolls were more like $50K or something.

It's a lesson you have to learn by actually having it happen to you.

The problem with BT and those like him is that they've been on a one-way rocket train to the top. When they invariably go busto, it very likely might be too hard to re-assess, start small, and come back. And no, I don't consider being continually staked to be a true comeback.