[APXG]

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he is folding the turn like 80% of the time anyway

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You had me till here APXG, good analysis but I dont think he is folding anywhere near 80%. Given what Ive seen I like to check and bet the river if checked to, like 300.

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Why not? I agree with OP's assertion that villain would rarely play an Ace, two pair or set this way given the heaviness of the board and shallow stacks on the turn. He doesn't need to go for a CRAI to get stacks in unlike in a 100bb+ game.

If you think he's shoving with KK-88 there then I agree its less than 80%, but I assumed this was not the case. Its like THE WORST board to go broke on with marginal hands.