[iStackBooks]

What is shockingly bad is the quality of discussion this forum. Partly my fault, I should've made it more clear in my original post - the point of an example like this should be to analyze the hand itself. For example, the following topics are worth discussing (keep in mind that I have previously stated the following: the table has been playing tight, solid poker... there may be some fish in the water, but they haven't shown themselves)

1. What is his range

This is easy. The kind of stuff that a retarded monkey would have no problem with. Coincidentally enough, it is also what you posters have provided. On the surface, that is without any further information, there are a number of hands that we can reasonably put in his range. Any set, some two pairs, overpairs, overpairs with flush draws, any flush draw, complete air.


2. How do specific betting patterns and normal player tendencies limit his range?

There are several aspects of this hand that should bring us to some reasonable conclusions about the probability of hands in his range. First is the nature of the betting preflop. The pot was raised and two players called out of position (sb and bb). This should tell us that hands like Ax and Kx of clubs are more likely that 72 of clubs and the various other low disjointed club hands that make non A hi or K hi flushes on this flop. Also, big pairs are very unlikely for our villain. How often will a player just call with a hand like this facing a raise and a call? It happens, yes, but we can see pretty clearly how it influences his range.

Next is the flat call on the flop. Again, some players will play overpairs and sets like this but we have to realize how unlikely it is. In a $2 tournament, maybe, but the majority of players in a high stakes mtt will understand the need to raise here (protect vs. draws, build the pot, get the money in before a scare card kills action, etc.) Also we can pretty much eliminate 44.

Our final piece of evidence is his check on the turn. In this case, he was going for the check-raise. What hands check raise here? Well, if the villain could be sure that a bet was coming then it would be a good play with a lot of hands. Any set, small flush, maybe even overpair with flush draw. However we have to realize that the villain had absolutely no reason to expect a bet out of me. The sb bets the flop, villain calls, I call. At this point, the sb is the aggressor and is representing the best hand. When the sb then checks the turn, the villain has to realize that the person most likely to bet can't bet again until the river. Now, if he has a set or lower flush he does not want to give away a free card. Either hand will usually think they are good on the turn, but would likely assume otherwise if a club hit the river. Furthermore, either of these hands needs and wants to build the pot. Why would any half decent player check in this spot without a very very strong hand (like the A or K hi flush draw)? It would be a significant risk that most players wwill not be willing to take. He check raises to 3600, telling us more about range probabilities. The size of his raise tells us that he is committed to the hand, but not terribly concerned with giving us a cheap price to see a club (straight card even) on the river. If a set raises here, it certainly wants to get al of the money in on the turn. It won't be too disappointed to take the pot down right here. A low flush will likely do the same. To me, this absolutely reaks of the Ace or King high flush.


3. What are factors should influence our decision

It is very very early in the tournament, and we have a lot of chips if we fold - if we lose we are in serious, serious trouble. The chips that we win are not as important as the chips that we stand to lose. Also, in all reality our best case scenario is that we are drawing against the A or K of clubs or the board pairing. I just don't see too many reasonable players raising here without the A or K of clubs or anything less than 2 pair. We are in good shape against a better flush draw, set, or two pair we are in good shape but are still vulnerable. If we are behind we are drawing dead. How many of you would fold KK (the 2nd nuts) this early preflop? How many would fold AA on a 2610 flop (the 4th nuts) this early? My guess is a lot of you.

4. What is the correct play?

I didn't think I could fold the Q hi flush here - so I didn't. Somehow, you have taken this post as an argument for a fold. That is not the case. First I wanted to know if you agreed with my assumptions about his range. If we trust our reads, I am simply wondering if we can ever fold an edge like this early on in a tournament. Keep in mind that many very well respected players will gladly fold KK preflop at this stage. And like I said before, many will fold a 4th nuts hand like AA on something like a 269 flop.

If you can't and/or don't want to treat hand analysis like this then what is the point? Everyone knows that the Q hi flush is dominating here mathematically but some of still rely on and trust our intuition and that has to be part of the discussion here.