[Irish Mafia]

[ QUOTE ]
This definitely depends a lot on Hero's 3betting frequency and Villain's propensity to float. However, here's what I think:

Villain's pf range is probably something like TT+, KQs, AJs+, AQo+

Flop: Villain calls Hero's cbet. This probably isn't AJ/AQ, but could definitely be anything else if Hero 3bets as light as I do. I'll take JJ out of the equation too. Also, I think AA most likely raises the flop. TT might raise the flop but could call.

Turn: Villain checks. He can still have TT, QQ, AK, AQss, AJss, KQs. 99 and TT just hit boats and there's only a PSB left so they would probably slowplay. KQ/AK might bet but also might check, and QQ is definitely checking behind to get to showdown.

River: Js eliminates the possibility of AJss. If we check, our hand is pretty ambiguous. Villain will probably value-bet his entire range minus AK, because all it beats AK, a hand we could easily be holding, and none of it loses to anything we could conceivably have (I think).

So:
QQ/KQs - 4 combos (we win)
TT/AQss/KK - 5 combos (we lose)

So c/c looks like the right play to me.

If he's a nit postflop and won't vbet QQ or KQ here, it's probably a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cow Pig, your avatar is amazing.