Re: An Expert Laydown I Should Have Made?
Always factor in the 10% nutcase factor. Even I am surprised some times that I still win. And if you let them see you are capable of folding this, who knows what happens next time. But I know how you feel, I have the same thing. The other day someone donked the river, and another guy called... I thought about it and there was no way he could call with anything I beat, in the event the donker was bluffing. Therefore, I figured an overcall was throwing away money, and I folded. The donker was bluffing, and the 2nd guy called with bottom pair, after all the action before. I had folded my winning middle pair.
And your hand is an easy call imo. You can not read someone for a boat with 95% certainty, just because the turn and river pair the board. Why can't he have an overpair and figure he beats all the other two-pairs now? Why can't it be some ridiculous desperation bluff on a missed flush? How can you know, for sure, he knows you have a straight AND him having a boat... imo you can't.
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