An Expert Laydown I Should Have Made?
I have A4 suited in the BB and its a limped family pot pre-flop.
The flop comes 952 with two clubs. Checked around to the cut-off who bets. He had missed the blinds and posted a live big blind and a dead small blind. I decide to check and we have 6 people seeing the turn.
The turn is an off-suit 3, giving me the second nuts. I check, planning to check-raise. CO bets as predicted. SB calls. I check-raise. Everyone else folds. CO hems and haws before calling. SB folds.
From what I know of my opponent, I am absolutely certain that he has believes that I have a straight and that he wouldn't call my check-raise unless he has outs. I am also certain based on a tell that he didn't flop a set. His hand range here is two pair or the nine of clubs with another club. I think that he probably folds K9o or TT here.
The river brings another non-club 3. I bet. He raises. There's no way he's bluff-raising me here since he is certain I have a straight. If I know my opponent well enough to absolutely know that he thinks I have a straight here, should I fold?
These situations always make me uncomfortable. I feel like I am being a slave to some book by thinking "big pot, gotta call" when all my logical abilities say otherwise. Against other opponents, it's an insta-call. Against some, it is a reraise. But against this particular opponent with this board and action, I was sorely tempted to fold. I was actually considering checking and calling if the river had paired one of the flop cards, but the 3 seemed harmless.
I find myself playing badly after brooding when I make calls when I need to be 90% sure to profitably fold and I am more like 95-99% sure but still call. Some books say to leave the expert laydowns to the experts. What if I am good enough to make those laydowns?
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