[Eratosthenes]

[ QUOTE ]
I am having trouble understanding why we'd push. The FE is really less here with 1 MP raiser.

I'd put the MP2 on AA-JJ, TT, AK-AQ.
I'd put the button on mid-pairs, maybe 77+ hoping to catch a set. Since he didn't raise, I exclude AA-QQ from his range. I'd put him on 77-JJ, AK-AQ.

If you push --
1. MP2 figures you probably don't have an AA or KK since you're pushing and not raising 3X pot.
So MP2 calls with QQ-AA, AK. He folds TT-JJ and AQ.

2. Button looks weak here, don't think he has AA-QQ. He folds 77-JJ and everything except maybe AK, i.e 16 out of 60 possible hands, so he wins very few times against MP2 and we ignore this case.

Most times, you're against MP2 now.

Calls: AA-QQ (18 hands), AK (16 hands)
Folds: JJ-TT (6+1), AQ(16 hands)
Total hands: 57
AA-QQ: 18/57= 32%. You win: 32% * 18% = 6%
AK: 16/57 = 28%. You win: 28% * 55% = 15%

Total win % = 21%. Pot: 7+10+10+73 = 100
Total lose % = 40%. Lose: 73

Folds: AQ, JJ-TT, 23/57 = 40%. Pot = 7+10+10 = 27

EV = 21%*100 + 40%*27 - 73*40% = 2K. That is a real small edge now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Note that I said easy push against a likely steal. If raiser is a frequent stealer his range is MUCH wider. He (I) could be doing raising with any 2 cards if he reads the remaining players as weak. His range could be something like: any pair, any A, K9+, Q9+, 54s+, T9+, 97s+, and a few more trashy hands. Since a push is giving neither of the other players good pot odds, they are only likely to call with a quality hand.

It is probably worth thinking about the caller's range also. If he is a loose doofus he is calling with lots of hands we are ahead of and only occaisionally calling with a big pair. If he is pretty tight, he is raising with hands the beat us and calling with some Ax hands, some pairs that we beat, and maybe some KQs, etc. hands. He might race with AK or AQ or even call with some mid pairs. OTOH, if the caller is a strong player you should beware; he might be calling with a very strong hand to induce a squeeze from us.

If the raiser is likely stealing you really need to raise because you probably have the best hand, but you are vulnerable to overcards and against 2 opponents. As several posters have already pointed out, any raise will pot commit you, so push.