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Old 07-18-2007, 08:01 PM
djk123 djk123 is offline
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Default Re: Marginal spot w AQ ITM $100r

I really think is a fold. I do not think Lil's 3 betting range here is as wide as people
are suggesting due to the stack sizes. Lil knows GB is good and that GB knows that Lil is very
aggressive. Given this, I doubt Lil thinks GB is going to raise from LP with 13 BBs, with Lil sitting on a
monster stack on the button, and fold to a shove often enough to make reraising light a good play.

Let's say Lil's range is 66+,AT+,KQ and BR's range is TT+,AQ+.

Assuming Lil always calls BR's shove, there is 96614 in the pot and we have to call our remaining
34807. So we're getting 2.77571, which means we need 26.5% equity to breakeven.

Against those 2 ranges, we only have 22.33% equity, clearly not enough.

I cannot imagine BR's range being any looser, but even if I give Lil 22+,A8+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs, we still only have 23.8% equity.
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