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Old 07-18-2007, 04:22 PM
MrHoobris MrHoobris is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 170
Default Re: AT gutshot + NF draw facing big raise

Hmm, interesting spot. If you push, I estimate his calling range will be something along the lines of:

Board: Kd Qd 9d

Hand 0: 36.131% { AdTc }
Hand 1: 63.869% { 99, KQs, Q9s, JTs, Jd8d, Td8d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 8d5d, 8d4d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 7d4d, 6d5d, 6d4d, 5d4d, KQo, JTo }

Current Pot Size: 28 + 20 + 156 = 204
Left to Shove: 432 - 14 - 20 = 398
Final Pot Size if called = 432 x 2 = 864
X = P(Fold)

EV(0) = (X)*(204) + (1-X)*(0.36*864 - 398)
X = 30%
So we need villain to fold 30% of the time for the play to breakeven. A read on villain would be great, but I'd guess he probably folds around 20-30% of the time, so it's close to breakeven.

It is a great metagame play though that will help balance your play and gain action when you do push the nuts at very little cost, so I like a shove.
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