Re: Rainkhan and the 33 versus Alex Kravchenko
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Khan needs 44.18% pot equity to make this play break even. That's using ICM to model prize pool equity and also assuming Rahme never overcalls. I got Khan's folding $EV by assuming a pushing range of {22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A5o+,KTo+,QJo} for Kravchenko and a calling range of {TT+,AQs+,AKo} (4.08% given Khan has 33 and not accounting for Kravchenko's range) for Rahme if Kahn folds. I doubt Rahme's calling range matters that much since he's tight enough to almost never call there anyway.
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Right, and he has more than that pot equity since he's ~45.4% equity. He loses a little of that if Rahme calls him, but gains a little from your analysis as I think Rahme will call a little wider if folded to (for instance he said he'd definitely call the one UTG all-in with his AQ).
In his post bust out interview though Kahn claimed that he had a read on Kravchenko that he was weak on this hand. If you repeat the exercise but make it twice as likely that Kravchenko has the weak half of his range than the strong half this goes from a marginal but probably good play to a clearly good play.
Add in the overlay from finishing first (both cash + future endorsement, invitations, etc.) and I think it was a clearly good play.
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