[SamG]

I don't understand why everyone keeps saying the board is really draw heavy. It's not.

There's only one OESD (56). There are no pair+str8 draw combos. The top two cards are diamonds, which makes pair+fd less likely (A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is possible).

If he's on a draw, I don't understand why he doesn't bet the flop a little bigger (to make us fold) or simply 3bet push. He just put a bit over half his stack in. Looks more like a made hand that wants action.

So my most likely hands for opponent are a set/2pair or some kind of combo draw, maybe a big flush draw (5d6d, Ad3d, 5d7d, 6d7d, AdTd), and I weight a set as being more likely due to opponent's bet sizing.

If this is his range, we're either flipping or drawing very thin.

OK so if you think he'd play A8, 99, or TT this way, get it in. But we don't have a read, and that seems like a reckless line for villain to take with one of those hands. Maybe this is a cash game vs. tournament thing, though. I am primarily a cash game player, and I almost never see someone play an 8 this way unless they're really bad (in which case we'd probably know it after a few orbits).

Where is my thinking wrong?

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Its 6 max and you have an overpair on a draw heavy board. Get it in

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This strikes me as way too simplistic.