Re: ** WSOP ME, FT Sweat, Tuesday, July 17 **
[ QUOTE ]
33 --> very VERY bad, sorry...
he cant expect more than 50-50, best case scenario... what was he thinking???
[/ QUOTE ]
He was thinking that he only needs 42.9% equity if the BB folds. The BB will fold all but about 2% of his hands. The UTG raiser was in front of the BB with 4 BB and had a big range. Pushing with 33 is not so bad. Even if the UTG hand range is only something like 22+,A4+,KT+ his equity isn't terrible (and I think the UTG range is wider than that). That's 208 coinflips (53%), 6 dominating (80%), 72 big pocket pairs (20%), 1 tie (50%). All told that is around 45.2% equity. It is pretty marginal but close.
|