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Old 07-16-2007, 03:46 PM
Borodog Borodog is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Performing miracles.
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Default Re: Why doesn\'t Ron Paul speak the truth re: the bias against him

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Of course the media is biased and favors the frontrunners

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At this point it's not just frontrunners --- it's anyone who has a chance in hell. Paul doesn't.


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The sportsbooks seem to disagree with you. I've seen him anywhere from 15-1 to 7-1 against. My wife mentioned seeing 5-1 against, but I haven't been able to find that.

sportsbook.com has him at 15-1.

http://www.sportsbook.com/sportsbook/livelines.php

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Speaking strictly objectively here, these odds aren't reflective of any actual market-derived price. Sportsbook.com and other online bookmakers make money off of these because they pay out much lower than the actual odds. You can't take the other side of the bet at 1:15, for example.

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That's the point, though. It doesn't matter that the actual odds are higher than 7:1 (or whatever) against; the point is that these odds are being continually adjusted downwards, because the 200:1, and then 100:1 odds against Paul previously were clearly bad lines.

Furthermore, there is upward market pressure exerted on lines like these. The lines have to be low enough to be +EV for the bookmaker, but high enough to entice bettors into betting. Bookmakers competing against each other for bets also raise the lines.

So, while the bookmakers hope to make money because the lines are longer than 7:1 (or whatever) against, the actual odds (ideally) aren't too far off from that. Certainly the same order of magnitude.

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Get real man. Those lines are complete crap and you know it. There's absolutely no way that Ron Paul is 7:1, or even close to that. The only reason the odds are like that is cause people are dumb (ZOMG I bet 100 and win 700!!) Do you think those ridiculous WSOP prop bets that have Ivey at 20:1 to win the ME are accurate as well? Like someone else said, if people could bet the other side, there is no way the lines would be that low cause sharps would hit up Paul losing for 1:7 all day. The fact that you would even mention a 7:1 line shows that you're not trying to make an intellectually honest argument about Paul's actual chances of winning.

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Read my post again until you understand it.
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