Re: Fourth Street Decision from Borgata 20/40 yesterday
Knowing nothing about the way CIA has played big and small hands already, I would absolutely play on Third, and I would absolutely raise the first lap (though not the second). Before the Seven gets weird, I am most interested in that other Queen. If the other Queen plays you have a dead hand and a not-awesome kicker. I want to know now what's up with that Queen. Also, a compromised one-pair hand plays best in a small field, and a raise makes for a smaller field.
The LRR on Third is a gag I sometimes use to buy free cards on occasion, and since the Seven will probably be in position to take a free one on 4th and beyond, I wouldn't put him on a huge hand necessarily. If he has a big hand, rolled Sevens are more likely to be played this way than AA or KK, but I would have to consider drawing hands like Ace-high FD or a small suited 3-straight.
When the 5 and 6 die on Four and CIA catches an 8, yet he calls open Sixes anyway, it is still not impossible he has a drawing hand. If he has trip Sevens, he ought to be raising for value against the Sixes, but he doesn't. AA or KK in call-down wizard mode now much more likely than Trips.
As for the possibility that he is still drawing, consider that if he made a pair of Eights to go with his 3-flush, has an open-ender, or has a buried big pair, he would love it if you and your Queens would Eff-off so he only has to beat the OM, (and if the OM only has a 3-flush and Sixes, he's in a very good spot) but he didn't raise to kick you out because he didn't want to risk being raised by trips. It is reasonable that he may still be drawing.
At any rate, that's not rolled Sevens talking, or at least it doesn't sound like it.
If I could make CIA for a draw, I would be tempted to play on, since CIA's straight cards (and therefore also likely two-pair cards) are compromised. Without history and a good read, it remains that I'm a nit, and the paired door card triggers my nit reflex. I fold Fourth. Working through it decision-by-decision, I think it is closer than it seems at first glance.
|