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Old 07-15-2007, 01:03 PM
cianosheehan cianosheehan is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
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Default Re: Help me settle this dispute (Simple EV problem)

Thanks for the replies.

My argument was that in being forced to make a choice of flipping the coin and not flipping the coin, you are forced to make a choice between one that is +EV, or the other being to decline a +EV proposition. You can only make one of two decisions, a yes or a no. The 'yes' is +EV, and knowingly turning down the yes is -EV.

In this instance, is it necessary to define what EV of 0 is? Can you really call declining a known +EV opportunity as zero EV? True you aren't risking anything, but since you only have one of two choices (to flip or not to flip the coin), and knowing that flipping is +EV, can you not say that refusing a +EV proposition is -EV as opposed to zero EV?

As DrVanNostrin said, there are of course instances where you shouldn't take the bet, ie I wouldn't bet everything I own on a coin flip even if I was getting +10%, because starting from a financial 0 is more -EV than declining a +10% EV.
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