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Old 07-15-2007, 09:53 AM
cero_z cero_z is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: k Tight
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Default Re: Live deep stack 25/50NL hand

Hi tsarast,

So I guess you're wondering if it's now worth protecting your hand vs. the obvious OESD that's likely to be in one player's hand. Although there are other small reasons to raise the turn (kid might call with worse, you may see the river cheaper by raising if Eugene has JT), they are outweighed by these two facts: a)it's more likely that one of the villains is ahead right now than that they're both behind AND will call a raise with a worse hand, and b)the pot (4500) is still only 1/3 of the size of your stack.

Calling here with 13 probable outs to a monster is the clearly correct play, as others have stated. The downside is that you price in a 9. But, that 9 will lose money for sure when the Qd/7d rolls off, and you probably won't lose any more if a different straight rolls off. There are, at maximum, 15 bad cards for you on the river, while there are 13 very good cards, and the other 18 are pretty neutral. So, you're a 2:1 favorite to like the river card, and you should be in a very +EV spot on the river (relatively easy decisions to make), with 5-7k in the pot and 10K left to bet, if you just call on the turn.

Contrast that with raising the turn, which leaves you in the position of risking about 15K in a 4500 pot, where you will either take it down with a hand that may be way ahead, or occasionally get it in as a decent but not overwhelming favorite (like vs. AA) or (slightly more often) as a decent dog (vs. a straight or bigger 2 pair), and you can see why all of the top-notch players who've commented so far have said that it's a super-obvious just-call.
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