[DVaut1]

Point 1) If UTG is good or just aggro (you say he's been active), he's probably got a wider range than we might intuitively suspect: he knows it's the bubble, he knows he's got you covered, losing this pot won't cripple him to the point of putting himself at risk of bubbling, there's a nice pot he can pick up here, so he's got alot of fold equity because he knows you're not calling without a huge hand.

Point 2) Here's why you should be scared if the villain is a thinking player that's uber-good: he knows that you're aware of everything I just said in "Point 1" above -- which means he knows that *you know* he could be shoving light here, and he still shoved anyway. He did just see you raise him for 25% of your stack on the bubble, so he knows you probably have a very good hand -- and as I said, he knows you're aware of everything I said in "Point 1", which means he knows you can put him on a somewhat loose range -- and he still put you all in. If he's a thinking player, I'd be worried.

So I don't know. Without some kind of precise read, I'm probably calling here. I haven't run Pokerstove but I assume it's +EV to call here unless UTG has the tightest of tight ranges, and I don't think we should put UTG on such a tight range. You'd have to give UTG alot of credit as a player capable of higher level thinking to lay this down, IMO, and I'm not giving a typical player that much credit.