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Old 07-13-2007, 01:28 PM
Mook Mook is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 76
Default Re: bet sizes to maximize profits, and minimize losses (intresting)

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You should try to make them call unprofitably with the bottom of their range, profitably with the top, and break even about 2/3 of the way up, if you think they're drawing.

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I think your point you made is absolutely brilliant, but can you explain what you mean by this sentence a bit more please.

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There's a chart in NLHTAP that explains this point perfectly (it's the S-curve chart).

Basically, most people will (correctly) call with very weak hands when the bet is a small % of the pot, and (correctly) fold all but the very strongest hands vs. massive overbets of the pot. But by the FTOP, you want people to play incorrectly, which explains why very small and very large bets are generally not optimal.

You want to find the "sweet spot" where betting any more will not fold out too many more hands, but betting any less will invite many more hands to call. Usually this happens around a bet size that will make your opponent fold the weakest 70% of their holdings and call or raise with the best 30% - thus the 2/3 reference earlier. You can't calculate "where" this point is in terms of $ since it varies widely from game to game, but in general, 1/2 pot isn't enough as it encourages calls from hands you'd rather see fold - i.e. it isn't "far enough up the curve".

Mook
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