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Old 07-11-2007, 11:59 PM
ymu ymu is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,606
Default Re: All in with any two 3 hand with <1BB when the BB is AI with less c

Thinking aloud ...

If you fold, he's 50/50 to double up this hand, and if he does you will need to get lucky in your BB to survive. You will have at best a 50/50 shot - if they both come in you're 33% to survive your BB. So you come 2nd half the time and survive to do this all over again next orbit nearly half the time after that. Tripling up in your BB won't affect this much.

So overall, slightly more than 50% to get 2nd if we fold. (E2A: I'm too tired to think this through properly - this might be very wrong).

If we call, BB has a 33% chance to knock us out by winning the hand, otherwise we get 2nd 67%.

Pretty rough calcs, and I might have messed something up, but it looks like a call with ATC to me.
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