Re: 10-20 Kill hand from Wynn
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We have 9 clean outs, but if we hit on the turn we have to dodge over half the deck to hold up. theres nothing wrong with mucking here and waiting for a better spot. I am wondering though about another possibility. How about 3-betting here if your'e almost certain you can fold out the other 2 and get it heads up, given the equity in pot? We need Buzz or someone to crunch the numbers here.
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I just typed out a whole response before re-reading the OP and seeing that a player raised the flop, making our immediate odds 5-1 and our implied odds likely 6-1 or 7-1. Obviously if there isn't a raise it's a must call. But even with the raise it's closer than it looks. If you're up against two very specific hands, which is near worst case scenario, top set in one hand, and the nut flush draw in the other, you've got 20% equity. But if you're up against top pair + gutshot + flush draw in one hand, and the nut flush draw in the other, you've got 30% equity. And there will be instances where you've got 40% equity, but on average i'd say you're usually holding 28% equity in this spot.
So, that turns this into a player specific decision. If the player who raised was an excellent player, I would fold because there is a hand that totally crushes you, the same wrap + flush draw. TBH, I'm usually calling here, because most people wont have that hand when they raise here, and you can usually expect someone behind you to call two cold, and even if they dont, I think you're getting 5-1 to peel one. This is a high variance situation, and there are much more profitable calls to be made, but assuming you can play the turn and river correctly I reccomend calling, because even making very slightly +EV calls still translates into profit over the long run. I do reitterate though, it's very close and usually player specific.
But FTR, you wouldn't have found yourself in this spot if you had played the hand correctly preflop!
Raise!
You've got four broadway cards and king high spades in what appears to be a 7-way pot. Raise this hand!
-Tex
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