Re: Trade ideas...lets see what we can come up with
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Sorry didn't read all your reasoning for gold/silver spread, but isn't a crack spread a better arbitrage strategy. (assuming if the spread still exist) Personally, if I am taking risk premium returns, I would look into premiums provided by futures backwardations. Also, don't forget that yield curve is inverted between 6mo and 2 yr.
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you will lose your stack on the roll. not to mention you probalbyd ont have the cpaital to put on a perfect crack spread (due to underlying notionals)
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