[ConstantineX]

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I haven't been following this stuff super-closely, but it's also worth noting that there's some validity to Turkey's objections. I could be wrong, but my impression is that there really are Kurdish terrorists using N. Iraq as a base for operations in Turkey. Not that that would justify an invasion of Iraq, but it is a real provocation that might be pushing certain elements towards that course of action.

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It is a competition between the two secularizing elements the Turks want. My gut instinct is that the Turks won't jeopardize their situation with the EU too badly to light the tinderbox, but the Turkish Army has wide latitude in their operations from the perception amongst the Turkish people as a "secular" force opposing Islamist tensions. Moreover, its forceful and antagonistic moves are extremely popular due to the real PKK threat from northern Iraq; the Kurdish people in general are trying to use the destablisation of the region as a catalyst to create their independent. The lack of a hegemonic power in the region and the Army's wide latitude probably means the tensions are still as taut as ever.