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Blarg I can seriously swing a bat back and forth pretty quickly, while moving a little, such that it would be more difficult than you think to get your knife hand in close to my body.
But I really think this thread is exhausted without video trials. Someone more motivated than I needs to step up. Actually, if it takes place in Twin Cities, I'll volunteer to show up with a camera and/or participate.
link in my earlier post was effed up:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0kC11cq8KQ
Classic In Living Color skit. Not as funny as I remember it, but very relevant.
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Oh, I'm not saying it's easy, especially for someone who doesn't train in quick closes. But for life and death stakes, people are gonna be giving it 100%, and moving just as fast as they can, too. A bat is inherently slow and telegraphic. Even if you handle it reasonably well, the nature of the weapon doesn't change. And we are talking about equals, so if you are especially good at swinging a bat, we should assume that a knife guy is especially good at closing a couple of yards.
I think that between two completely untrained guys, a bat's chances leap up. Some guys will probably think backing up is better than charging in -- hey, it at least gets you away from the pain. But it also takes away any chance to do some cutting or stabbing. If you scare a guy with a knife so he doesn't charge in, sooner or later you're pretty likely to land something on him from a safe distance.
But people with a little more experience will know that they can't let you keep the range advantage forever, or sooner or later that bat is going to land.