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Might as well throw this in here, what's the formula to get a confidence interval on these? On the season I'm at 1210 bets and 1.58% ROI on system plays and 1267 with a 3.44% ROI including regular handicapping (yay hot streaks).
Thanks.
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To do this test, I normalize your results and assume you win 639 bets and lose 1267-639 bets at +105 odds so that your ROI is 3.39%. Using binom.test in R, your 95% confidence interval is 47.64% - 53.22%. Your 99% confidence interval is 46.78% to 54.08%. I would conclude that you need a larger sample.
I assume most aren't familiar with R or other statistical software, so I created a
Trend Confidence Calculator to help people perform these calculations.
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Thanks, I'll play around with that a little bit. I've got a few questions to make sure I understand it though...
The real win/loss are 652-596-19 at -102 if that helps.
So with 95% confidence, my true winning percentage should be somewhere between the 47.64% - 52.22%. If that's true, then obviously I need a much larger sample size. Can you confirm or deny this? Thanks again.