Re: MLB Betting
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Why does nobody use a Kelly betting method or a coefficient variation of a Kelly system?
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Many people use Kelly.
Most beginners have a hard time calculating their edge so they assume flat betting is correct. In reality this really isn't a bad strategy if you're laying 11 to win 10, as your edge is going to be pretty consistent (if you have an edge at all), so Kelly would dictate laying about the same amount on each bet.
The same can't be said for baseball, as having a 1% edge for a team expected to win 55% of the time is different from having a 1% edge for a team expected to win 45% of the time.
Anyway, yes, to properly use Kelly you need to be able to approximate your edge, so your "method" or "system" will need to calculate probabilities.
As for me personally, I use a half Kelly stake size.
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