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Old 07-09-2007, 08:29 PM
soah soah is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Las Vegas
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Default Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL

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Hes been running really hot and caught up big time on a couple hands that he was way behind on. I get the feeling that he's tightened up a bit and doesn't want to lose the stack he's built.

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really important... in addition to the fact that tight and straightforward player went all-in representing a big pair, this dude called on a drawless board saying he can beat a big pair or has something similar himself, and then you overcall saying you think you can beat them both. I think you would have to bet extremely small in order to get him to call with AK; he'd basically be calling hoping to chop. Your hand looks huge here and it's a protected pot and he's not in the mood to make a big call anyway... so even though you are ahead here very often, you're not going to be ahead so much when he actually calls a big bet. The fact that it seems unlikely for him to play a bigger set this way has to be weighed against the fact that it's unlikely for him to actually payoff with worse.
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