Re: NL50- Set faces turn shove
A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Jx is likely, but so also is the flopped straight (76s) looking for a safe turn, a "slowplayed" flop 88, also 44 which you beat, or even a flopped flush.
Putting him on one hand and saying call makes a mockery of hand ranges. I see more hands that play this way you are behind than those which you beat.
How about saying here that a straight waits for the safe turn card rather than pops the flop only 10% of the time; 20% of the time he has A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Jx [this is still steep for only 3 possible combos), 50% of the time he has a set (although one of those combos is 44 which you beat) and 10% of the time (this is steep) they have a weaker hand and are just FPS-ing. Let's give them a semibluff hand though, say a gutshot and one card flush draw like 8x7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. We'll also offer A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Ax as a bad pf and flop slowplay.
So, say the following: 8 set combinations (2x JJ, 3x 88 and 3x 44?), 3 A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Jx combos, 4 76s combos (one of which IS 76 spades for the nuts), 1 A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Ax and one 8x7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] combo for the loose BB call turned semibluff spew.
Bear in mind some of the sets you beat will have the 1 card spade redraw against your non-spade hand too.
Board: 4s 8s 5s Jd
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.762% 37.76% 00.00% 216 0.00 { 5c5d }
Hand 1: 62.238% 62.24% 00.00% 356 0.00 { AcAs, JcJh, JcJs, 8c8d, 8c8h, 8c8s, 4c4h, 4c4s, 4d4s, 76s, AsJc, AsJd, AsJh, 8h7s }
If people want to tinker with the range, say by removing 87 and 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] be my guest. I just think it isn't ever an easy call here, and may well be a fold. Not to say I can fold sets.
EDIT: after all that my range doesn't include any flopped flushes. Add those in with you @ 4-1 dog on the turn and it gets worse. It's a fold.
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